Volcanic eruptions, forest fires, electrical storms, electromagnetic radiation, sandstorms and more extreme events have become more frequent and intense as a result of global warming. Aviation safety can be jeopardised by these natural hazards, whose effects can be extremely disruptive. Engine ingestion of dust, smoke, and sea salt aerosols contributes to erosion, corrosion, pitot-static tube blockage, and engine flameout in flight; while volcanic ash and sulphur dioxide gases cause windscreen abrasions, reduction of visibility, damage to aircraft instrumentation and can result in engine stalling. Space weather is also damaging by disrupting radio and satellite communications and degrading navigation systems.

The ALARM project developed an early warning system hosting platform for natural hazards, designed to assimilate a wide range of data collected by terrestrial and satellite observation systems. This is used to create multi-hazard models for early warning and nowcasting that can be shared via aeronautical communication channels in the form of alerts. ALARM research also developed a demonstration artificial intelligence tool to improve on currently available forecasts and to carry out additional information analysis in support of  airspace management planning.

The ALARM prototype, global multi-hazard monitoring and early warning system (EWS) generates prompt alerts of natural hazards based on continuous global multi-hazard monitoring in near-real time. Among deliverables, it provides nowcasting up to two hours in advance, short-term forecasting up to six hours in advance of sulphur dioxide plumes at regional scale, and of severe thunderstorms at local scale (for example, an airport). It also provides medium-term forecasting (up to 48 hours) of climatic hotspots at a European scale and is compliant with the system-wide information management yellow profile for aeronautical data exchange.

Benefits

• Enhanced alerts include satellite data
• Improved natural hazard observations
• Nowcasts of sulphur dioxide dispersion and thunderstorms near airports
• Climatic hotspot forecasts